Damascus' influence on Germany's elections

Three scenarios for how events in Damascus will shift the German elections. How are German parties using Syrian refugees in their campaigns? What to watch for in Syria in the coming months?

(Update: the perpetrator of Friday 20 December’s attack on a Christmas Market in Germany was reported to have been a Saudi national who made posts about Germany being too tolerant of radical Islam. He is even reported to have been supportive of the AfD.)

It will likely take years for the situation in Syria to stabilize, but what happens there will in the coming two months already effect Germany’s elections. Germany after Türkiye and Lebanon hosts the most Syrian refugees. In September 2024, 48% of Germans identified refugees and immigration as the most pressing political issue, up from 26% in April.

In this piece, an overview of German parties’ positions on Syrian refugees, the factors to watch in the coming months, and three scenarios for how what happens in Syria would play out in the elections.